Recently, the focus of market practitioners in engineering plastics is mostly on POM, but the market price of another engineering plastic PEt/>PET bottle has unconsciously broken through a historical high, the highest to 9400 yuan/ton. So what happened to PET that made her worth so much? Let's listen to the small series one by one.
First, production costs are rising strongly
As we all know, the upstream monomers of PET are PTA and MEG. As can be seen from Figure 2, the spot price of PTA in East China has shown an upward trend in recent years. PX is the main raw material for the production of PTA, in recent years, PX production capacity is too high, but the profit is not good, especially since March this year, the frequent maintenance of the device, the insufficient load, resulting in the recent PX supply continues to be tight. In addition, the international oil price remained at $110 per barrel this month, and the cost side was strongly supported, so the price of PX continued to rise. In addition to the rise in the main raw materials, since March this year, the maintenance of PTA plant equipment began to increase, the operating rate declined, and the supply side continued to shrink. Due to the high production cost of PTA, in order to ensure their own profits and prevent deep losses, PTA prices are forced to increase, and the cost side support is strengthened.
Second, the supply of tight support
As of May 26, Guangzhou Pan Asia PET device started 60%, Dalian Yisheng PET device stopped for maintenance, Zhejiang Wankai PET device small line to produce light slice. (5/20-5/26) The weekly production of domestic polyester bottle flakes was 212,200 tons, down by 0.3 tons from the beginning of the month (4/29-5/5). (5/20-5/26) The average starting load of domestic polyester bottle flakes was 85.02%, down 1.21 percentage points from the beginning of the month (4/29-5/5). Coupled with repeated domestic public health events, logistics transportation continues to be limited, and the spot circulation of PET bottle pieces in some regions is tight, so the supply side support is acceptable.
In summary, the strong support of the cost side, coupled with tight supply, is an important reason for PET prices to break through the high level. However, downstream demand continues to be weak, the acceptance of high-priced supplies is not high, and with the alleviation of the epidemic, the spot circulation of polyester bottle chips gradually recovers, and the market price will eventually fall. It is expected that in the short term, the PET bottle film market will run at a high level and fluctuate; In the long run, the market risks falling. Personal opinion, for reference only.
